The Experiment, Part 2

Alright, so the development portion of the experiment has just finished yesterday. I have managed to get three games to point of where I want them so those are the three games that will determine how I fair in the contest.

Other Games

As for the other 4-5 games I developed during the contest time frame, they will be finished, but not included in this contest as far as scoring goes. These games include: Avoider, Dodger, Runner, Clicker, and Defense. (Yes, they will all get real names once art has been added to them). It should take 1-2 hours to implement art and polish to each game when I get back around to them. Unfortunately many of the artists I contacted did not respond so I was unable to get everything needed.

Completed Games

Now let’s do a quick breakdown of the three games I manged to complete. I did not record time that it took to implement art so I’ll try to make a reasonable guess for all of the games.

Beyond Escape (Used to be Jumper):

Game Size: Large
Game Type: Distance
Game Length: 30 – 60 minutes
Total Dev Time: 12 hours 30 minutes
Art Costs: $430

Monolith Guardian (Used to be Shooter):

Game Size: Large
Game Type: Shooting
Game Length: 30 – 60 minutes
Total Dev Time: 9 hours 15 minutes
Art Costs: $220

Save the Egg (Used to be Dropblock):

Game Size: Small
Game Type: Avoiding
Game Length: 1 – 2 minutes
Total Dev Time: 2 hours 0 minutes
Art Costs: $70

So that’s $720 in total art costs which starts me off at -$360 for this contest. I have fairly large expectations as far as performance goes for these games. If my guesses are correctly I will have earned that back on ads alone in a matter of days. My competitor managed to complete 6 games during the allotted time, with total art costs of $150 starting him off at -$75 for the contest.

Expectations

I enjoy making guesses about how my games will perform so I’ll list below expectations for the first two months. After two months have passed, I will go back and analyze actual performance to expected performance.

Beyond Escape (First two months):

Expected Plays: 3,000,000
Expected CPMStar Revenue: $3,000
Expected CTR: 20%
Expected NG Score: 4.00
Expected Kong Score: 3.75

Reason: This is a fairly unique game that has a whole atmosphere incorporated to make the game very enjoyable; this is something I haven’t tried doing before. It has stellar graphics along with a large amount of content so I expect it will fair well as far as distribution goes. No matter how this game performs, I’m very proud of how it turned out.

Monolith Guardian (First two months):

Expected Plays: 2,000,000
Expected CPMStar Revenue: $2,000
Expected CTR: 25%
Expected NG Score: 3.80
Expected Kong Score: 3.60

Reason: This game turned out to be a fairly generic space shooter aside from a twists which will hopefully keep it interesting for users. It’s a well built game, but I don’t feel it stands up to the others as far as the wow factor goes. Despite this, I still think it will spread well due to it’s outer appearance.

Save the Egg (First two months):

Expected Plays: 500,000
Expected CPMStar Revenue: $500
Expected CTR: 10%
Expected NG Score: 3.80
Expected Kong Score: 3.40

Reason: This game actually deserves to perform better than I expect it to, out of the three games this is a close second to Beyond Escape in terms of my favorites. The concept for this game is very simple, but I’ve managed to turn it into more of a novelty. I’ll wait until it’s released to tell you more :) .

Analysis

If all goes according to plan I should $5,500 pocketed from this 7 day frenzy, and a nice 1,150,000 clicks to our website. The long term revenue should be closer $10,000 and 2,000,000 clicks after 6-12 months if expectations hold. Hopefully I’m not being too ambitious with these numbers, but they’ve been estimated based on the success of my previous games.

The clicks to the website should earn approximately the same amount as the ad revenue so that would mean all the revenue statistics posted here should be doubled. I also intend on selling a couple non-exclusive licenses to give all this revenue a nice boost. If my numbers are correct that means I’m worth about $1000/h as far as coding goes!

In my next post I will include the swf files to the game both prior to and following art implementation. Hopefully some of the games will be released as early as tomorrow. The follow-up to this post should be coming in the next few days once I’ve released everything.

Stay Tuned!

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  • Comments (23)
    • lubos
    • June 21st, 2010

    Hope it will go as you expect, cant wait to see the results ;)

    • a fan
    • June 21st, 2010

    Thank you for sharing all of this! Keep us updated!

    Which website are the games going to be released on?

    • Rob Fox
    • June 21st, 2010

    Hope you can say “it took me 23hours and 45minutes to make $10,000″ in a year :P

    • wulf11
    • June 21st, 2010

    This is very exciting! Good luck!

    btw it would be cool if you could also blog how you publish your game..which sites and so on and how you get this amount of gameplays ;)
    (in the game tips section)

  1. Man, I love case studies like this. Sadly though, alot of these types of posts that interest me and I follow seem to just end abruptly, with no conclusion.

    GOD HELP YOU IF YOU LET THAT HAPPEN HERE >:O

    In all seriousness though, good luck. Can’t wait to play these games too.

    Also, when you say “our website”, what site are you referring to?

    • admin
    • June 23rd, 2010

    Thanks for the comments everyone, the website is Agitatedferret (I created it with the person who I’m currently having this contest with).

    Rob Fox,
    That would be great :)

    Wulf,
    I actually do very little distribution myself. Almost 99% of it is viral. I upload my games to NG and Kong then let them take off from there.

    Ralph,
    I also really enjoy case studies which is why I decided to do one. I’ll try not to let this end abruptly like most others unfortunately do. There is a slight delay in when I had planned to release the games since the site is not 100% complete yet. Thank you, and I’m referring the website I developed with the person I’m in this contest with.

    • George
    • June 23rd, 2010

    aren’t you a cocky bastard.
    geez your just a kid with high expectations

    • admin
    • June 23rd, 2010

    George,

    I’m not sure why you see me that way, is there something specific I said that rubbed you the wrong way?

    High expectations? I’m expecting these games to perform worse than my previous games. I’m not claiming to be an all knowing flash god, I’m not claiming to have the next Bloons on my hands, I’m just claiming I have created a few half decent games that should get a half decent number of plays.

    If you have some constructive criticism or advice I would be glad to hear it, but I don’t appreciate name calling with no reason. I don’t think I’m being the one who is being the “cocky bastard” or the “kid” here.

  2. Georgy-boy here seems a tad bit jealous if you ask me.

    • wulf11
    • June 25th, 2010

    thanks for your answere! amazing that you get all this traffic just viral!
    and dont be irritated (sry my english ;) from comments like george without any constructive messages!
    your blog is very interesting and fun reading it!

  3. a week has passed. is about time to get an update:P

    • admin
    • June 28th, 2010

    Sorry Encoder,

    It seems the developer for the site is taking much longer than expected to finish. Can’t start releasing the games until it is at 100%, hopefully that will happen sometime in th next week though.

    • z6
    • June 30th, 2010

    Can’t wait to get an update on the contest :)
    Keep it up, this is one of the few blogs with actual numbers being posted. Very helpful!

    • Arsis
    • August 9th, 2010

    Beyond Escape – Expected Plays: 3,000,000

    “I upload my games to NG and Kong then let them take off from there.”

    NG views: 2234
    Kong plays: 1426

    NG and Kong being two of the most heavily viewed casual gaming sites in existence.

    The other games are even worse.

    You’re obviously talking out your ass and are doing you audience a major disservice.

    • zrb
    • August 14th, 2010

    Personally I agree with Arsis, you look like you expected way too much out of these games. Some of them did bad.

    But then again it is an experiment, hopefully you’ll take more time to work on better games in the future.

    • demon
    • September 1st, 2010

    @lubos
    did u rip an artist of for the art in these games?

    • de moon
    • September 2nd, 2010

    so which artist on dA did you rip of – im surprised you can still find people willing to do the work

  4. Wow, I wish I could pocket that kind of money in a week. Good luck!

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  6. Since the MSM is completely skewed, what blogs/websites have you ever found that provides you information how the MSM ignores?.

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